SMI Visitor's Blog       

Welcome to the SMI Visitor's Blog where you'll find selected excerpts from our Member's Blog, plus occasional posts created especially for our visitors.

For SMI Web Members, click here to go to the SMI Member Blog.

« Blog Home

Bottom or bounce

In this month's Level 4 column, I tried to offer a little perspective regarding whether the March lows were likely to be the ultimate bear market bottom, or if the recent rally has merely been a bear market trap. It's tricky to figure that out until after the fact.

Since writing that article, I've bumped into a couple other articles weighing in on the same question. William Hester, writing for the Hussman Funds, has a couple of compelling charts that sure seem to indicate this has only been a bear market rally, not a true bottom. The article is good, but dense, and you can learn all you need to know just by quickly looking at the charts.

Mark Hulbert has a different take on the matter, arguing essentially that it doesn't matter. His main point is that even if March was the ultimate low point for this bear market, new bull markets typically drop back within their first few months and retest the earlier lows.

Powered by Movable Type  |   Subscribe  |   Email Updates